Category Archives: Stock Market Update

Will Stocks Continue Down? | Stock Market Update

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Will Stocks Continue Down? | Stock Market Update

The stock market broke out of its range to the downside. From here things will likely continue  down further. If you were caught in this selling then “shame on you” – there has been plenty of warning. Here are the details:

The Current Trends of the Stock Market

stock market update swing trade daily chartIn the very short term, stocks are in consolidation and moving sideways after suffering a steep breakdown in price. Short term swing traders can use the 60-minute chart to fade extremes with such tactics as in the rubber band swing trading strategy.

Position traders and longer term swing traders should be aligned to the short side if they wish to trade with the trend – as common trading wisdom dictates. Look to get short on moving average roll-overs and weak bear market rallies etc, but know that going short in this time frame is more difficult than going long. To catch these quick sell-offs, it is often best to drop down to the 60-minute chart and find short entry as the “bear rallies” roll over and fail.

The Long Term Stock Market

stock market update weekly chartLong term traders and investors should reduce exposure to growth and value stocks as we are certainly in a primary down trend and bear market. We can’t say that we didn’t have warning that a sell-off was coming, and it’s not too late to pull away from the falling knife.

Very long term investors, such as those with 401Ks, etc, should consider accumulating stocks at these levels (check out you can time the market), but please consult a professional advisor to see what might be best for you.

Click to enlarge and clarify the stock chart thumbnails.

Stuck in a Range

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Stock Market Update – Stuck in a Range

stock market update spy daily chartI first drew the trend lines on this chart at the beginning of the month, and the triangle pattern they depict holds to this day. Price once again has reacted to these trend lines and swing traders who trade in the very short term should be looking for short trading signals.

Position swing traders who trade in a longer term (such as 1-3 weeks) do not have a trend direction to trade with – so, in my opinion, they should revert to the next time frame up (the long term) and anticipate a sell-off.

spy bearish stock market update weekly chartWhy so bearish? Observe the weekly chart and we can see that we are still clearly in the red. It will take a real trend change for price not to eject once again in a sell-off in this time frame. Let’s be realistic and not fight the tape. We are in a sharp down trend in this time frame and there is greater than a 50% chance that this trend will continue.

Is the Stock Market Showing Hints of a Breakout?

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Stock Market Update

Is the Market Showing Hints of a Breakout?

stock market update for successful tradingI have been mostly bearish, but with a non-biased eye, chart reading may suggest stocks breaking up and out of their current range. Notice price congesting in the upper area of the symmetrical triangle. I wouldn’t commit to the long side here, but perhaps it is time to look for some longer-term position-type swing trades and growth stock breakouts etc.

The short term trend of the market is up. The medium term is sideways, and the long term is down. Align your swing trades accordingly.

Stock Market Update – Look out below, or is it above?

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Stock Market Update

stock market update look out belowThe daily chart of the SPY (shown on the right – click to enlarge), continues to show the same picture. Stocks fell sharply in July, and have been moving sideways ever since.

Short term traders should be long, though with caution. We are approaching what might prove as resistance.

Medium term traders have it the toughest right now. At some point price will break – but which way?

stock market update long term down trendLong-term traders and investors are looking at a down trend – as seen on the weekly chart (the 2nd chart – click to enlarge). This chart suggests that future movement has a higher probability of going down than it does going up.

So what direction should I swing trade?

I would say it makes sense right now to favor short set-ups in nearly every time frame. In these difficult conditions, however, I would suggest seeking set-ups and signals from swing trading strategies such as the Rubber Band Swing Trade Strategy. These types of swing trading strategies will make sure that you are trading with the current and relative trend for your time frame.

Stock Market Update – Trading in a Range

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SPY trading in range stock market update

SPY daily (click to enlarge)

Stock Market Update

Stocks remain directionless in the intermediate time frame, up in the very short time frame, and down in the long-term time frame. Plan your trading and investing accordingly.

The daily chart shows stock continuing to trade in a range. More stock market trading update information to come this weekend.

Long-Term Swing Trades – EUO, NXG

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Stock Market Update

Very short-term traders should align their trades to the short side and seek out short sale set-ups. Intermediate-term traders should hang back a bit as the market is still trading in a range. Long-term traders/investors should be wary of stocks, which are in a major down trend.

Swing Trading – EUOEUO swing trade stock market update

Has anyone else been waiting to see the Euro lose value from all of these crisis events? I have, but the Euro has been moving sideways. Well not anymore. Price has ejected out of it’s base and has begun what might be a powerful trend. The EUO is the ultra-short Euro. (Go long EUO to be short the Euro, it’s an ETF that moves opposite to the direction of the Euro).

Click to enlarge the EUO chart.

Swing Trading – NXGNXG swing trade gold update

Another long-term “position” swing trade I like is NXG. It’s small cap gold mining stock that has ejected out of it’s base on strong volume. It’s a classic “CANSLIM cup-with handle” or “3rd watch” pattern. Whatever you call it, this could be a home-run trade.

Click to enlarge the NXG chart.

Please learn about the risks of trading stocks and ETFs before investing and consult a professional.

Stock Market Update – Where is the Market Going?

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After the heavy selling that we saw from European Debt Crisis News along with the infamous US S&P downgrade, stocks have really not been going anywhere.

It seems like the stock market is moving quite a bit, as we keep seeing one-day moves of 2, 3, and even 4%, but price all the while has remained in the range as formed by the three heaviest days of selling last month.

Very short term traders can see that the most recent whipsaw shows a bullish trend right now. Align your short term day and swing trades to the long side.

Longer-term swing trading (also sometimes called position trading) is difficult in these environments because the market is not trending in this time frame. If someone held a gun to my head and told me to take a 4-week position in stocks, however, I would have to refer to the next time frame higher take a short trade. The long-term trend is certainly still down.

SPY daily chart. Stocks have been trading in a range only as big as 3 days of selling off:

stock market update daily chart of SPY

SPY weekly chart. Stocks are certainly still in a strong down-trend:

SPY weekly chart stock market update

Stock Market Update | Short-Term Trend Change?

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It appears as though the stock market’s short-term (and maybe even intermediate-term) up-trend is rolling over. Swing traders should trail stops aggressively for well-performing long trades and consider closing the weaker stragglers. It may be time to seek out short trade set-ups.

Of course, use common sense. If the stock market rallies tomorrow on the non-farm payroll report then continue with your long trades and long swing trade set-ups.

The 60-min chart shows price rolling over – or offering a very good place to stay long if the stock market reacts well to Firday Moring’s Coming News.

stock market update

The daily chart shows another potential rollover.

swing trading strategy and day trading

BKS JOSB – Stock Market in Minor Uptrend – Will Selling Resume?

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The broad stock market is in a minor up-trend. That is to say, swing and position traders (short and intermediate term traders) should be long and looking for mostly long set-ups. Still, stocks on the weekly chart show a bearish picture, and we are in a condition where very sharp selling has often resumed in the past. Trade and invest very defensively. 

Stock Market Update News

Consumer confidence report comes out considerably bearish with the lowest figures in two years.

Day Trading Update

Very slow week for earnings reports this week.

Day trading simply in the direction of the current minor trend (up, as of now) should produce good profits and successful trades this week.

BKS breaks away strongly today on the before the bell earnings report.

JOSB to report before the bell on Thursday.

Stock Market Update – Gold GLD for Long Term and Swing Trades

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Stock Market Trends

Swing traders still have the green light as the minor, short-term trend is up.  Position traders in the intermediate term should use caution as the stock market is moving sideways in your term, but perhaps likely to breakout to the downside. This is due to the primary or major long-term trend – which is down. Investors should use extreme caution as extreme selling can ignite and resume at any time when the stock market is in this condition.

GOLD and GLD

Long-term holders of GLD and other gold stocks should ignore the headlines. GLD and gold remain in strong up-trends for the long term. Expect more GLD and gold stock updates as price developes. Check out the weekly chart of GLD:

GLD gold strong trend

GLD as a swing trade

In the shorter term, however, GLD might be giving us a signal to go short. Whenever we see a trend get ahead of itself and break out of its own channel it often indicated trend exhaustion. Central tendency will likely pull price back to at least its center line.

The 60-mintue chart of GLD. Try to catch the rubber band swing trade strategy on the next bounce back up:

GLD 60-min chart gold short term swing trade strategy